Cole Kmet has chance to emerge as one of NFC’s top pass-catching tight ends in 2022

Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet is entering his third season after being selected in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. As a prospect, Kmet was dubbed a Rob Gronkowski-like do-it-all tight end who’d bully smaller defenders as a high-end, big-bodied athlete in the passing game. He hasn’t quite lived up to those expectations yet, but tight ends often take longer to develop in the NFL. And considering Kmet is only 23 years old, his upside remains incredibly high.

Kmet finished the 2021 season with 60 catches for 612 yards. He doubled his receptions and yardage total from his rookie year, but his failure to score any touchdowns last year remains a stain on his second season. Still, he proved he’s developing, and with growing chemistry with quarterback Justin Fields, Kmet has a chance to become one of the more productive tight ends in the NFC.

According to Pro Football Focus, Kmet is among the six potential breakout players in the conference this season.

“Kmet’s uptick in targets from his rookie season (46) to his sophomore campaign (89) was significant,” PFF’s Kambui Bomani wrote. “He took on an elevated role in last year’s passing game, setting the stage for a 60-reception season and career-high 63.4 receiving and offensive grades. Now in Year 3, he has a chance to be a breakout star thanks largely to questions at Chicago’s offensive skill positions.”

Cole Kmet will be big beneficiary of Bears’ new offense

The Bears’ revamped offense under offensive coordinator Luke Getsy should help Kmet’s stat line. It’s a similar scheme run by the San Francisco 49ers where tight end George Kittle became a star. Green Bay Packers tight end Robert Tonyan scored 11 touchdowns while Getsy was part of the Packers’ offensive coaching staff.

Kmet isn’t the on-field athlete that Kittle is, but he’s certainly more talented than Tonyan. His game reminds me quite a bit of Mark Andrews, the top-tier tight end of the Baltimore Ravens. And if Fields locks onto Kmet the way quarterback Lamar Jackson has with Andrews, there’s no reason to think Kmet can’t surpass 800 yards and score six to eight touchdowns.

“I’ve been very impressed with Cole,” Getsy said of Kmet earlier this month. “Again, that mindset that we’re trying to set, he’s been a great example of that as well. And you go back to that thing we talked about before, just the ability, the flexibility as a player, I think he has all that stuff. So I’m excited to see him have a bunch of different roles in our offense.”

Cole Kmet ranks behind only Darnell Mooney as most established Bears’ pass-catcher

Part of what makes Kmet’s outlook so strong in 2022 is the current cast of skill players in Chicago. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney is the clear WR1. A training camp battle is on the horizon between Byron Pringle, Velus Jones Jr., Tajae Sharpe, Equanimeous St. Brown, Dante Pettis, and David Moore for the WR2/3 roles. There’s upside in that group, but they’re all unproven at this point.

Kmet, meanwhile, has shown year-over-year improvement and joins Mooney as the only primary passing targets Fields has familiarity with this season. He’ll get his targets by default.

Is it possible Kmet will flame out and be another Ryan Pace draft pick who fails to live up to his early-round expectations? Sure, anything’s technically possible. But Kmet’s floor as an NFL player is secure. At worst, he’ll be who he was in 2021: a steady and reliable pass-catcher who can move the chains when his number is called. At best? He’ll be a red-zone target hog who challenges for double-digit touchdowns every season.

We’ll find out who Kmet really is as a player in 2022.