Chicago Bears betting on upside to replace Khalil Mack

The Chicago Bears’ decision to trade superstar edge rusher Khalil Mack to the Los Angeles Chargers this offseason generated a mixed bag of reviews. General manager Ryan Poles inherited a roster in desperate need of a makeover, so leveraging a big-name asset like Mack for a quality draft pick (No. 50 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft) made sense. The salary-cap relief — the Bears free up more than $28 million in spending money next offseason — made the deal a no-brainer.

However, there’s an on-field reality that won’t be felt until the 2022 season. With Mack back in the AFC West, the Bears have to figure out how they’ll replace his production. He started 52 games over the last four years in Chicago and recorded 36 sacks for a pass rush that was invisible without him until Robert Quinn’s record-setting 2021 campaign. Mack’s impact extended beyond the stat sheet, too. His presence demanded attention from opposing offensive coordinators, he dictated protections and freed up other players on the Bears’ defense to make plays. And while it’s true that Mack’s play has been on the decline, he’s still regarded as one of the best defenders in the NFL.

Chicago Bears have familiarity with Al-Quadin Muhammad

The Bears’ moves since the Mack trade haven’t provided a clear answer for his replacement. They signed former Indianapolis Colts edge rusher Al-Quadin Muhammad to a two-year, $8 million contract in free agency and drafted Dominique Robinson in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Muhammad will join third-year pro-Trevis Gipson as the primary candidate for Mack’s reps.

Muhammad brings one year of starting experience to the Bears. He started just eight games in his career before last season when he started every game for the Colts. His increased reps led to a career-best six sacks and 48 tackles. His seven tackles for loss was the second-highest single-season total of his career.

Muhammad’s familiarity with coach Matt Eberflus’ defense is a plus. There won’t be a learning curve for him, which will be a significant advantage over Chicago’s other edge rushers early in the season. The coaching staff’s knowledge of his skill set helps, too. Defensive coordinator Alan Williams was the Colts’ defensive backs coach for most of Muhammad’s career, he knows what kind of player Muhammad is. The fact the Bears targeted him in free agency is a sign that the coaching staff identified him as a must-get.

Despite Muhammad’s increase in production, his 2021 season was consistent with his play over his previous four seasons. He ended last year with a 64.6 grade from Pro Football Focus. It’s a score that was within his expected output, he registered season grades between 54.6 (note: that was his rookie season that totaled only 24 snaps) and 66.2 in 2019, when he logged 483 snaps. Muhammad played a career-high 800 snaps last year.

Muhammad’s pass-rush grade in 2021 was his best, he scored a 61.0 from PFF, an improvement over his previous career-best of 58.5 in 2019.

You know those grades aren’t great if you’re familiar with PFF’s grading scale. They’re very average (at best). By comparison, Mack scored a 74.0 pass-rush grade last year, which was the first time he scored below an 81.3 since 2015. Simply put, Muhammad isn’t a player who can replace Mack by himself.

Trevis Gipson could be a breakout star for Chicago Bears

The Bears won’t expect Muhammad to be a one-for-one replacement for Mack. Gipson will get his opportunity to break out in 2022. A 2020 fifth-round pick out of Tulsa, Gipson scored an 87.0 pass-rush grade in 2021 on 259 rush-reps (he played a total of 489 snaps). In Week 17’s game against the New York Giants, Gipson recorded two sacks and a near-perfect 97.8 pass-rush grade from PFF. There’s significant upside in his game following his seven-sack year in 2021.

Trevis Gipson’s 87.0 Pass Rush Grade in 2021 ranked 10th among all Edge Rushers pic.twitter.com/07YFIEn8aF

— PFF CHI Bears (@PFF_Bears) March 27, 2022

Dominique Robinson is a rookie wild card

Robinson is a wild card who, like Gipson, joins the Bears as a fifth-round pick with a very high ceiling. The former wide-receiver convert, Robinson is a gifted athlete who can be unleashed on passing downs with one objective: sack the quarterback. He’s still developing as an all-around defender, so his role will be limited in 2022. And it’s a role that could lead to more reps than expected for a day-three pick. If he makes noise in training camp and the preseason, Robinson could be on the field more than projected right now.

Bears trusting Matt Eberflus to figure it out

Replacing Mack isn’t one man’s job. It will take a collective effort by three players whose roles remain undefined. The Bears have done an excellent job building out the position group even with the departure of Mack. But whether the all-over-one philosophy works remains to be seen.

The reality, however, is that growing pains are expected. It’s the first year of a new defensive system with a collection of pass-rushers replacing Mack, who have a combined 18 career sacks — 58 fewer than Mack alone. Veteran Robert Quinn will be relied on again as Chicago’s primary sack artist, but he’ll need help.

Whether it’s Muhammad, Gipson, or Robinson, the Bears are banking on Eberflus getting it right in 2022.