ESPN predicts Justin Fields will lead NFL in interceptions in 2022

The Chicago Bears have been part of the NFL since its inception, but they remain the only team in the league never to field a 4,000-yard passer. And if ESPN analyst Mike Clay’s 2022 predictions come true, they’ll have to wait another year to break the embarrassing streak.

Second-year quarterback Justin Fields certainly has the talent to surpass 4,000 passing yards. He has the benefit of a 17th regular season game, too. According to Clay, none of that matters. He’s predicting Fields will finish the 2022 season with 3,635 yards in 16 games played. His prediction for Fields’ passing touchdowns (and interceptions) is even less impressive. Clay has Fields tossing only 18 touchdowns to 16 interceptions. To add insult to injury, Fields will lead the NFL in interceptions, according to Clay.

Clay’s predictions suggest Fields won’t be a game-changing runner, either. He has the athletic dual-threat finishing 2022 with 597 rushing yards and three scores. If these projections hold, Fields will end his second year with just 21 total touchdowns.

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Fields isn’t alone in disappointing projections for Bears’ skill players

If Fields has that bad of a year, then wide receiver Darnell Mooney is bound to struggle, too, right? According to Clay, the answer is “sort of.” He has Mooney ending 2022 with 76 catches for 1,088 yards and four touchdowns. It’s a stat line that marks a regression in catches, an increase of just 33 yards over 2021, and the third-straight season of four touchdowns. Clay’s prediction flies in the face of most NFL analysts who view Mooney as a breakout player in 2022 and a candidate to eclipse 100 catches and 1,300 yards.

And what about the running game? Clay has David Montgomery finishing with 962 yards and eight touchdowns, a good, not great, season. If Montgomery fails to reach 1,000 yards (or more) in 2022, there’s little-to-no chance general manager Ryan Poles will reward him with a lucrative second contract with the Bears.

For as many fans as Montgomery has in Chicago, this prediction has a chance of coming true. The Bears’ offensive line is a work-in-progress. Second-year running back Khalil Herbert should get more opportunities in 2022 as well. It’s a combination of factors that works against Montgomery having the season running backs desire in their contract year. Montgomery’s predicted stat line equates to 3.99 yards per carry, which simply isn’t good enough.

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Justin Fields is Bears’ best bet to eclipse 4,000 yards

Clay’s season projections tend to rely on a player’s career output. He stayed true to that philosophy with his Chicago Bears outlook. Most of his predictions stay inside the lines and lack a bold stance. And that’s OK. But it’s an approach that fails to consider a Matt Nagy-less offense and the impact it will have on player production.

Call it a hunch, but I think Fields will eclipse 4,000 passing yards and earn his place in Chicago Bears lore. It’s a season total that requires just 235 passing yards per game. If the former first-round pick can’t produce at that rate or better, then the Bears have a big problem at the game’s most important position.