3 Keys to a Bears victory over the Packers in Week 2

It’s the first of two Packers Weeks for Chicago Bears fans in 2022. The NFL’s oldest rivalry will kick off its 205th game on Sunday night, with the Green Bay Packers currently leading the all-time series 103-95-6.

If the Bears are going to swing that record back in Chicago’s favor (as it was for over 80 years), Sunday night seems like a great time to start. The Packers are reeling from a humiliating loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1, their offense appears disjointed, quarterback Aaron Rodgers had no chemistry with his receivers, the defense underwhelmed, and the offensive line is banged up.

Can the Bears win a second straight game against a team that very few people believe they can beat? We’ll find out Sunday night. Until then, let’s take a look at my three keys for a Chicago victory.

Win the field position battle

In the first half against the San Francisco 49ers, the Bears dug themselves into an ugly hole with field position. At one point in the second quarter, Chicago’s average field position started at their own twelve-yard line. The 49ers, meanwhile, routinely lined up at midfield.

That won’t cut it against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Bears need to sustain drives and win the field position battle. They have to avoid 3-and-outs, and when they’re forced to punt, rookie Trenton Gill has to pin Green Bay deep on their side of the field. Winning the field position battle is the bare minimum for the Bears to secure a Week 2 victory.

Pressure the Edges

As I mentioned above, the Packers’ offensive line is banged up. Even if their talented pair of tackles David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins start, they won’t be 100% healthy.

The Bears, meanwhile, are coming off a game where the edge rushers applied relentless pressure against 49ers quarterback Trey Lance. They’ll need to do it again. The Vikings sacked Rodgers four times in Week 1, the Bears need to at least match that effort in order to win this game. Look for a pair of sacks from Robert Quinn, one each from rookie Dominique Robinson and Trevis Gipson, and at least one from the interior of the defensive line.

Sure, that’s a bold prediction, but I think the Bears’ pass-rushers will make a big impact Sunday night.

Score Early

The key to beating Rodgers and the Packers is to score. A lot. And early.

Last year, in Matt Nagy’s final game against the Packers as the Bears’ head coach, Chicago led at halftime, 27-21. However, as was so often the case, Nagy was outcoached in the second half and ended up losing the game 45-30. Why? No lead is safe against Rodgers, and the sooner the Bears can put points on the board, the better the chances they’ll be leading at the final whistle.

Don’t expect Matt Eberflus or offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to get outcoached. In fact, Getsy has already proven he can make the necessary adjustments to turn an abysmal first half into a victory by the game’s end. It’ll just make his life much easier if the adjustments he has to make are to grow a lead instead of chisel into a deficit.

If the Bears can put up 10 points or more in the first quarter, they could be on their way to a victory.

Prediction

Last week I picked the Bears to win 27-17. This week, I’m picking the Bears to win a closer game, 27-21. I think the Bears will build an early lead — like the Vikings did in Week 1 — on the back of relentless defensive pressure on Rodgers as well as a handful of explosive touchdown plays. Rodgers will make it close, as he always does. But the Bears come away with a “W.”

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