3 Keys to a Bears’ victory over the Bills in Week 16

On Christmas Eve, the Buffalo Bills will come to the (very!) Windy City to play the Chicago Bears. It’s looking like the weather will be extremely cold and chaotic, so this Week 16 matchup could be messy, especially considering the mismatch in overall roster talent and injuries.

The experts are mostly all-in on the Bills winning this game. They’re nine-point betting favorites. Can the Bears pull off a Christmas miracle? They just might do it with these three keys and a little luck.

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Run the Ball

The weather forecast for Saturday calls for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and temperatures in the single digits, so the Bears need to do what they’ve done well all year long: run the ball.

David Montgomery has had some nice games recently in Khalil Herbert’s absence, who has just returned from injured reserve and may be in line to play. And, of course, there’s Justin Fields, too. He’s already eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing this season, becoming just the third quarterback in NFL history to do so. In an extreme weather game, I expect to see yet another highlight-reel touchdown scamper from QB1.

The Bears have a three-headed rushing attack that has given the best defenses absolute fits all season long. Lean on them on offense, and I like the Bears’ chances.

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Contain Josh Allen

Last week, I said the Bears needed to contain Jalen Hurts if they wanted to keep the game close, and they did. Except for his 22-yard touchdown run (which was a fabulous read by him), he had just 39 yards on the ground. Credit to defensive coordinator Alan Williams for his terrific game plan.

But they can’t just copy and paste that game plan this week. Josh Allen is not like Jalen Hurts. At 6′ 5′ and 240 lbs, he’s a quarterback built like a Mack truck. Instead of trying to keep him from turning on the jets, the defense will need to focus on good, sound tackling techniques. Wrap him up, bring him down with hard, clean hits, and he might think twice about those QB Power runs.

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Win the Field Position Battle

Suppose the Bears consistently start drives on Saturday at their own twenty or worse. In that case, they’ll probably have to move the ball at least sixty yards just to get in field goal range, considering the extreme weather and how unreliable kicker Cairo Santos has been lately. That means the defense needs to step up. Big time. Force some early punts for the Bills to get the ball back around midfield or get takeaways on their side of the field. Whoever has the shortest field will probably win the game, and getting those short fields will be the defense’s responsibility.

I can think of only one game this year when the Bears had the offense, defense, and special teams firing on all cylinders together, and that was the Week 7 route of the New England Patriots. That’s the kind of game they will need to beat the Bills this week. But it’s still a tall order, so I’m picking the Bills to win an ugly, exhausting game, 24-17.