Race for the No. 1 Pick: Here’s who experts think will win Bears, Texans games

Who would’ve thought the Chicago Bears would play a meaningful game in Week 18. And while Sunday’s finale against the Minnesota Vikings isn’t relevant for the Bears’ post-season hopes, it will critically impact GM Ryan Poles’ offseason plans.

The Bears currently hold the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Their 3-13 record trails only the Houston Texans’ 3-12-1. If Chicago loses to the Vikings, as many expect they will, and the Texans pull off a victory against the lowly Indianapolis Colts, the Bears will end the year with the first overall pick and in complete control of the 2023 offseason.

The Bears have the most money to spend in free agency, which is the fastest and easiest way to fix major areas of weakness along the offensive and defensive lines. If Chicago ends up with the No. 1 overall pick, Poles can trade it for a king’s ransom and stock the roster with high-end first-round talent over the next several years.

Simply put, the Bears will own the offseason.

Bears and Texans expected to lose in Week 18

Before Bears fans can have visions of blockbuster trades dancing in their heads, the Texans have to win. And Chicago has to lose. According to experts polled on NFL Pick Watch, it’ll be a nail-biter.

The Bears should do their part for the first overall pick, with 97% of experts picking the Vikings. But those same experts — 58% of them — believe the Colts will upend the Texans, leaving Chicago to pick second in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Ending the season with the second overall pick is still a great outcome for the Chicago Bears. They’d still be guaranteed the best non-quarterback in the draft class. But there’s something special about the leverage that comes with the first overall pick, even if it means you’re the NFL’s biggest loser.