How Jalen Carter incident impacts Chicago Bears 2023 NFL draft plan

An arrest warrant for Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter was issued Tuesday related to charges of reckless driving and racing in an incident that resulted in a fatal crash in January.

Carter has long been dubbed the best non-quarterback prospect in the 2023 NFL draft. The Chicago Bears are a popular first-round destination for him in mock drafts because of their need at three-technique. If the Bears keep the No. 1 overall pick, Carter is the favorite to be their choice.

That could all be about to change.

Jalen Carter, a top prospect out of Georgia, is subject of an arrest warrant from the Athens-Clarke County Police Department over charges of reckless driving and racing involved in a January fatal crash. He was scheduled to address media at 10:30 ET at the NFL Combine. pic.twitter.com/QttJrobrTw

— Chris Emma (@CEmma670) March 1, 2023

Daniel Bartel -USA TODAY Sports

Bears won’t select a player with off-field concerns

The two most devastating things for a prospect’s draft stock in the run-up to NFL draft weekend are medical red flags and off-field incidents. We don’t know what Carter’s medicals will reveal, but this off-field issue could result in him tumbling down Round 1.

Jalen Carter won’t be the first elite prospect to slide several spots down the first round. Warren Sapp was the Carter of the 1995 draft but fell to No. 12 overall because of off-field concerns. Randy Moss wasn’t selected until No. 21 overall in the 1998 draft because teams feared his personal choices. Laremy Tunsil’s infamous mask video in 2016 dropped him to No. 13 despite no doubt he was the best offensive lineman in the class. In 2015, La’el Collins, a first-round talent, went undrafted because of a murder investigation.

Jalen Carter incident could lead to Bears trading further down Round 1

How far will Jalen Carter slide with Wednesday’s news? It’s hard to say. But for a team like the Chicago Bears, who can’t take any chances with the No. 1 pick, or even the No. 4 pick, Carter could be removed from their draft board altogether.

Is that a drastic overreaction? I’d argue it isn’t. Sure, Carter is innocent until proven guilty, and we have no idea if these charges will be dropped. It’s unfair to convict him in the court of public opinion, and some will say that his actions were traffic violations, albeit extreme ones.

Still, it’s about the choices that top draft prospects make before they enter the NFL that can give teams rare insight into their decision-making once they’re on the roster. Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus have touted culture as a key focus in their attempt to rebuild the Chicago Bears. Poor off-field decisions won’t contribute to developing that winning culture.

The Bears are expected to trade out of the No. 1 pick at some point shortly after the NFL Combine concludes. The theory presented so far has been that Chicago will move back to a pick like No. 2 or No. 4 with the hope they can still land Carter or Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. With Carter’s legal issues clouding his future, it’s possible Poles will be open to moving down even farther.

If Carter is off the board, expect Poles to pivot to targeting the top offensive lineman or even wide receiver with a more aggressive trade-back.

We’ll continue to update this story as news unfolds, but one thing is for sure: Carter won’t be the last highly-touted prospect to take a hit to his draft stock over the next few weeks.

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