Why the Chicago Bears might not trade down in 1st round of 2023 NFL Draft

NFL teams in a rebuild love the idea of trading down in the first round of the NFL Draft for extra picks. The Chicago Bears have already done it in 2023. They traded the No. 1 pick to the Carolina Panthers for an extra second-rounder this year and a first-round pick in 2024. That’s a job well done by GM Ryan Poles.

Many think Poles isn’t done trading. There’s an assumption that his preference is to trade down again. Rumors of a possible deal percolating with the Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 17 overall) have already begun. But I’m not sure I’m buying them.

Why? Because the 2023 NFL Draft isn’t that deep. At least it isn’t deep with first-round talent. The Chicago Bears are in a good position with the ninth pick, they’ll add one of the few legitimate first-round players from this class. If they slide down to No. 17 (or later), that won’t happen.

“The 2023 NFL Draft is headlined by four quarterbacks who are all expected to come off the board in Round 1,” NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero wrote. “The list of blue-chip prospects at some other positions isn’t as long.

‘Most teams have fewer than 20 prospects with first-round grades in this class.”

Chicago Bears need more “blue” players

I get it. Bad teams are usually more than one player away from playoff contention. The Chicago Bears ended 2022 as a bad team, arguably the worst in the NFL. The prospect they land at No. 9 won’t flip the roster from bad to great by himself. But at some point, Poles has to add blue players, the label he gives the highest-graded players on Chicago’s draft board.

The Chicago Bears have two second-round picks. They’ll finish round three with four new players. They already have a surplus. At what point does Poles go from smart to greedy with trades?

The players available at No. 9 are far superior prospects than those who could slip to No. 17 or later. Indeed, the NFL Draft is the most unpredictable event in sports, but 2023 feels slightly different. The top 10 guys are, for the most part, the top 10 guys.

Bears in good shape at No. 9

Offensive tackles like Paris Johnson Jr. and Peter Skoronski have a chance of being on the board when the Chicago Bears pick at nine. Neither will be there at 17. One of this year’s top two cornerbacks — Devon Witherspoon or Christian Gonzalez — could slide to No. 9. Neither will fall to No. 17. An edger rusher like Tyree Wilson could tumble down the top 10, as could Jalen Carter. Again, there’s no chance either defender falls much farther than that.

If the NFL has fewer than 20 first-round grades (and I’d argue it’s probably less than 15), the Chicago Bears should consider themselves lucky. Don’t overthink the process. Draft a plug-and-play starter in Round 1 and hit a few doubles in the second and third rounds.

Hopefully, in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Bears will be one season closer to legitimate contender status. They’ll be armed with two first-round picks and can make a power play up the board to add a special difference-maker.

It’ll take a successful 2023 NFL Draft to get there. And the odds Poles has a successful draft class get better by picking one of the few first-round prospects at No. 9.