NFL Best Bets, Week 14: Home Teams Cover in Primetime Showdowns

I will be the first to admit that the Cardinals bludgeoning the Steelers was an outcome I did not see coming. I can’t remember a more dysfunctional Mike Tomlin-led team in recent memory, but despite this, they are still alive in a frisky AFC playoff picture.

The Commanders hung around with the Dolphins for all of two possessions before being outclassed. But hey, at least the Lions covered, saving face for our Week 13 picks.

Let’s move on to Week 14, and I hope it’s a better one. Shall we?

Reminder: Lines taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.

COWBOYS -3.5 vs Eagles

This line started at -3 and moved to -3.5 when all the money came in on Dallas. While the hook adds some complexity, I’m still laying the points in this matchup.

Yes, the Eagles were humiliated at home against a ‘rival’ and will be looking to get back on track, but Dallas is not a ‘get right’ team, especially when coming off a physical game against San Fransisco where star quarterback Jalen Hurts got a little banged up.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are coming off a Thursday win and have extra rest/prep time for a big division game. The Seahawks exposed weaknesses in the Dallas secondary, so I expect this to be a high-scoring affair, but Dallas is 6–0 at home and boasts a +151 point differential on the season.

I think the Cowboys cover in a fun shootout.

DOLPHINS -13 vs Titans

I underestimated the Dolphins on the road last week and thought the Commanders would be able to hang around, but that proved incorrect. I will not repeat that mistake and am laying the points with the Dolphins.

Like the Cowboys, the Dolphins love beating up on bad teams, and Tennessee is a bad team. In addition to a porous secondary (which Miami should be able to capitalize on), the Titans will be without star defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons and could be without their best offensive weapon in Derek Henry.

On the Miami side, Vic Fangio should be able to dial up some fun pressures to confuse rookie quarterback Will Levis, as the Titans will be playing from behind most of the game.

GIANTS +6.5 vs Packers

The Packers found a groove with Jordan Love at the helm and have stacked together some impressive wins (Chargers, Lions, Chiefs) in their last few games. Now, they face a four-win Giants team that seems to be a mess on both sides of the ball.

Easy cover, right?

The line feels a little high, and I think Vegas is playing towards the public now overvaluing Green Bay. Yes, Jordan Love has had a turnover-free stretch in those three games, but I believe a ‘regression to the mean’ type game is coming.

The Giants have had two weeks to plan for Love and will be playing in a primetime game at home with an underrated Tommy DeVito (his only terrible game was against the Cowboys). All their wins during this stretch have been one-possession games, and I feel like that trend continues here. They get the win, but the Giants find a way to cover.