3 Keys to a Bears victory over the Packers in Week 1

The Chicago Bears kick off the 2023 regular season with a home game against their bitter rivals, the Green Bay Packers. No NFL fan needs to be reminded of the one-sidedness of this rivalry during the Aaron Rodgers era, but earlier this year, Rodgers was traded to the New York Jets, officially ushering in a new era for the Packers.

In an unprecedented run of quarterback stability, Jordan Love will be just the third Week 1 starting quarterback for the Packers since 1992.

The Bears also hope a new era will begin in 2023 with quarterback Justin Fields. Granted, he’s been the starter since early in the 2021 season, but that season was the last before a major regime change. With the 2022 season an obvious rebuilding year, 2023 feels like Justin Fields’ first real chance to prove he’s a franchise quarterback.

The way the 2023 NFL schedule was set, the winner of this rivalry game will have bragging rights for months, as they do not face each other again until Week 18. Both teams desperately need an emphatic win to start the season with momentum after experiencing disappointing 2022 finishes.

Here are three keys for the Chicago Bears to secure that win.

Make Jordan Love throw the ball

For the first time in 15 years, I am not worried about Green Bay’s quarterback. Aaron Rodgers was a better prospect than Jordan Love when he was a first-round pick. Remember: he was in the mix to be the No. 1 overall selection to the San Francisco 49ers. Sure, I didn’t see a first-ballot Hall-of-Fame career from the former Cal Bear, but there was no doubt he would do a good job replacing Brett Favre.

I don’t get the same vibe with Love.

To be fair, he has a lot of talent, and I think he can be a serviceable starter, like Daniel Jones. But he lacks the intangibles that made Aaron Rodgers so great. Love is mistake-prone if not kept clean in the pocket, and his accuracy is erratic. His preseason numbers look good on the surface, but less than 6 yards per attempt tells me the training wheels are still on for him.

The job for the defense, then, is simple: stack the box to slow down Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon and force Jordan Love to throw to a crew of inexperienced receivers and tight ends more than they intended.

Bears pass rush needs to step up

To piggyback off the previous point, even a mediocre quarterback can hurt you if he has all day to throw. The Bears’ defensive line can’t let that happen. While they are still far from a dominant force in the trenches, this year’s Bears are still a considerable upgrade from 2022, and they need to prove that in Week 1.

If you watch film from the last time Jordan Love was a full-time starter (granted, that would be college tape from 2019), you see a quarterback who doesn’t have that “next play” mentality. An early interception or several incomplete passes to start the game will likely snowball into multiple takeaways and erratic passing.

The best way start that avalanche is a strong pass rush. A sack and some QB hits on the opening drive would set the tone for the rest of the game.

Yannick Ngakoue? I’m looking at you.

Pound the rock with Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman, and Roschon Johnson

The Packers’ passing defense has been formidable in recent years, but stopping the run has been a major problem for them. In 2020, they allowed 4.5 yards per carry (ypc), 4.7 ypc in 2021, and 5.0 ypc in 2022.

Of course, all Chicago Bears fans want to see Justin Fields air it out, especially with the addition of wide receiver DJ Moore, but you have to play to your strengths and attack the opponent’s weaknesses.

The Bears must get the running back by committee going early and often, keep the offense in short second and third-down scenarios, and wear down the Packers’ defense.

In so doing, Chicago will control the clock, keep their defense fresh, and open big opportunities in the passing game.

Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Prediction: Bears win 27-14

Last year, predicting the Bears to defeat Green Bay felt more like wishful thinking: if X, Y, and Z all go perfectly, they can win!

This year, it’s different, it feels like Chicago’s game to lose, especially with home-field advantage.

A strong rushing attack will open the passing game for Justin Fields while the defense comes down with at least two takeaways of a jittery Jordan Love. There will also be a missed field goal or two from Green Bay’s rookie kicker, Anders Carlson, that could have made this one closer.

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