Week 5 NFL Best Bets: Texans headline 3 teams you should pick this weekend

We got back into the win column in Week 4 and put the overall best-bets record at 6-6 for the season.

While the Philadelphia Eagles eventually won the game, the Washington Commanders held them to a modest rushing total in Week 4.

Meanwhile, as predicted, the Las Vegas Raiders throwing Aiden O’Connell out for his first NFL start was seen with some mixed results, and the Seattle Seahawks not only covered but handily beat the Giants in their building.

Let’s move on to the Week 5 games.

Reminder: Lines taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.

TEXANS +2 @ Falcons

The Texans were the surprise team of Week 4, and I don’t see any reason they can’t carry it into this matchup with the Falcons.

Kendrick Green, starting guard for the Texans, is out with a torn meniscus, but the Falcons have a pedestrian pass rush at best, so I don’t imagine this will impact the game tremendously. In my opinion, this game comes down to the trajectory of the two quarterbacks. Stroud is top five in the NFL in passing yards per game and top ten in passer rating. Meanwhile, Ridder is 26th and 27th in those categories, respectively.

The Texans are playing confidently, and I see them winning this game outright.

CHIEFS -4 @ Vikings

The Chiefs are coming off a narrow win vs. the Jets, while the Vikings are looking to build momentum after getting their first victory of the season. So why am I picking the Chiefs? Any Patrick Mahomes stat has to be taken with a grain of salt because he has just been that good, but Mahomes has a 34-9 all-time road record and will face a Vikings defense with the fourth-worst QB pressure rate in the league. Mahomes will have all kinds of time to find his targets and control the tempo of the game.

I think the Kansas City Swifties win by at least a touchdown.

NINERS -3.5 vs Cowboys

This will be one of the most anticipated games of the weekend, and it’s easy to see why. The Cowboys and Niners are two favorites to come out of a weaker NFC.

Both teams are off to great starts and are coming off blowout wins. I give the edge to San Francisco because they have elite pieces in more places. The 49ers rank in the top ten in both rushing and passing offense, while the defense has given up the third-fewest rushing yards this season.

Dallas has relied on its rushing offense to set up its pass, and now, with Zack Martin and Tyron Smith a little banged up, that vaunted San Francisco defensive line will make life harder for Dak Prescott, should he find himself in third-and-long situations.

I think the game starts close, but the 49ers pull away in the third quarter and cover.

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