Experts have no faith in Bears, Tyson Bagent vs. Chargers in Week 8

Chicago Bears fans are excited to watch rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent make his second start of the season on Sunday night. He’ll face a Los Angeles Chargers defense that’s underperformed in 2023, but players like Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack can never be underestimated.

Week 8 is a fuse waiting to be lit. If Bagent slices and dices the Chargers defense, the Bears’ quarterback controversy will explode. It doesn’t matter how loyal you are to Justin Fields or how badly you want him to be Chicago’s QB1. It doesn’t matter if he was your highest-ranked quarterback in the 2021 NFL draft or if you invested in Fields jerseys and other memorabilia.

If Bagent plays well Sunday night, there’s a better than 50% chance he remains the Bears’ starting quarterback.

Maybe it’s recency bias. Maybe it’ll be the product of coaches who are in self-preservation mode. Perhaps it will be because this regime didn’t draft Justin Fields, and they have no loyalty to him or that first-round investment. Instead, the only thing this regime cares about is winning games to keep their jobs.

And if Bagent wins a second game in a row and looks good in the process, he’ll be viewed as the guy with the best chance to keep the coaches and general manager off the unemployment line.

Think about it: if Bagent blows up in front of a national audience, the Bears will have almost no choice but to keep him in the lineup. He’ll be the NFL’s biggest underdog story, and you know how much fans love underdog stories.

It’s crazy we’re at this point, just eight weeks into the 2023 season. And it’s not like Fields is having a bad year. You could argue it’s been his best season as a pro.

Fields had two of the best games of his career in two of the last three games he’s played. His passer rating is in the top-third of starting quarterbacks, and his 11 touchdown passes rank sixth in the league despite missing Week 7 with a dislocated right thumb.

Sure, his play speed can be frustrating, but the dude is playing at a high level. A really high level.

Yet, here we are. Tyson Bagent can knock him out of the starting lineup if he and the Bears beat the Chargers.

Unfortunately for Bagent (and the Bears), NFL experts don’t think that will happen. And it’s almost a unanimous sentiment.

According to NFL Pick Watch, 97% of experts picked the Chargers to win the game. It’s logical, right? Why would anyone bet on Bagent being anything more than a game manager right now? A quarterback who can protect a lead, complete short, quick passes, and stay out of the skill players’ way? Why would anyone think Bagent can handle a pass rush led by Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack? Why would anyone think a Division II player could thrive on such a big stage in front of a national audience?

Here’s the rub: that’s what these same experts (for the most part) thought last week, too, 80% picked the Raiders.

The Bears won that game 30-12. And Tyson Bagent was a huge reason why.

Will lightning strike twice? Should we even call it lightning at this point? Bagent won a roster spot at Bears training camp because he was simply better than the other quarterbacks on the roster. He’s worked his way into the QB2 job because the Bears think he gives them the best chance to win if Fields goes down.

Now, there’s an argument about whether the “if Fields goes down” part should be removed and replaced by: he’s the quarterback who gives the Bears the best chance to win.

Bagent Mania could get a slap of reality across the face Sunday night. And if it does, if Bosa and Mack make Bagent look like a lost rookie who can’t operate Luke Getsy’s offense, Justin Fields will be welcomed back into the lineup with open arms.

Just don’t bet against the rookie. He has a little something extra about his game. And it may be what the Bears need to start winning football games again.