4 Keys to a Chicago Bears victory over the Saints in Week 9

The Chicago Bears still don’t have a winning streak under coach Matt Eberflus. They failed to win their second in a row in Week 8, falling to the Los Angeles Chargers in an embarrassing primetime defeat.

On the flipside, the Bears also haven’t had a losing streak since defeating the Washington Commanders in Week 5.

Silver linings, right?

On Sunday, the Bears will look to get back in the win column with another road trip to New Orleans, where they will take on the 4-4 Saints. The Saints have one of the better defenses in the league, giving up just 296 total yards and 19 points per game, both of which are Top 10 in the NFL. But are those stats a mirage?

The quality of their opponents has been abysmal. The Titans, Panthers, Packers, Patriots, and Colts aren’t high-powered offenses, after all. This isn’t to say that the Saints have a lousy defense, but rather that it isn’t as fearsome as their stats would indicate.

Their offense, led by Derek Carr, has also underwhelmed, averaging 21 points per game. Even that is inflated by two outlier games against the Patriots and Colts. Outside of those contests, they’re averaging just 16.5 points per game.

There’s a clear path to victory here for this struggling Bears team. It won’t be easy, but if they can successfully hit the following four keys, it should be an impressive win in a stadium where they have not tasted victory since 1991.

Rebound game for Tyson Bagent

While he wasn’t terrible against the Chargers, rookie QB Tyson Bagent didn’t do himself any favors on Sunday Night Football.

He finished with two interceptions and a few missed throws that could have been big gains for the offense. However, he still made plays, and some incredibly frustrating premature whistles from the officials took two passing touchdowns off the board for him.

I know, it’s a bad look complaining about refs, but context is important for a rookie quarterback.

Bagent has to take better care of the ball on Sunday if the Bears want to win. That includes being on the same page with his receivers and seeing the field better. If he can put up similar stats to what he had against the Raiders in Week 7, then the Bears should be in an excellent position to win.

Also, this may be his final start before Justin Fields is back in the lineup for Week 10. He has to seize the moment.

Bend, don’t break

The calling card for Eberflus’ defenses has always been to give up field goals instead of touchdowns. The opposing offense may gain yards in bunches, but the defense keeps them out of the endzone. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen last week.

Against the Chargers, they allowed Justin Herbert and Los Angeles’ offense to march 92 yards down the field for a touchdown on their opening drive. Another touchdown drive in the second quarter went for 75 yards in less than two minutes.

I said in my “Keys to Victory” last week that forcing Bagent to play from behind would lead to mistakes and defeat, and that’s precisely what happened. This week, the Bears need to bring their A-game. They have to force takeaways, which they didn’t do often enough against the Chargers, and not until well into the fourth quarter.

Chicago must get off the field on third down, and most importantly, they have to sack the quarterback, which leads me to my next key.

Montez Sweat

The Chicago Bears traded a second-round pick to the Washington Commanders for premier pass rusher Montez Sweat at the 2023 NFL trade deadline. The Bears confirmed that Sweat would play on Sunday, but we don’t know how many snaps he’ll get.

Sweat doesn’t need to have a monster game. He doesn’t need the Khalil Mack “Welcome to Chicago” game from the 2018 season. But it would be an incredible boost to this defense if he could pick up a sack or two and a couple of impact plays against the run.

The Bears’ defense needs a spark, and Sweat is the guy who can deliver it.

Plus, an impressive first performance as a Bear would make it much easier to get a long-term extension done.

Establish the run

Few things help a rookie quarterback more than a punishing run game. We saw that in its finest form against the Raiders, but when the Bears traveled to Los Angeles, they picked up just 73 yards on 21 rushing attempts.

Sure, they fell behind early, but you can’t give up on the run that quickly. Not only does it make your offense one-dimensional, but it also takes away important passing concepts like play action.

Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy must commit to the run against the Saints.

And where did all the designed QB runs go? I know Tyson Bagent isn’t Justin Fields, not even close. But he’s a shifty runner in his own right. Get Bagent on the move a time or two early in the game, let him pick up some tough yards, and that will open up the field.

Running backs D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson need to make more of their opportunities as well. New Orleans is allowing 106 yards on the ground per game right now, good for 15th in the NFL. We know these guys are better than how they looked in Week 8, and they need to prove it on Sunday.

Final Prediction: Bears win 21-17

This is tough. The Bears aren’t nearly as good as I’d hoped they’d be back in August, but neither are the Saints. The defense will rebound after a rough performance against the Chargers, and Sweat will make an impact. This will allow the offense to play with a slight lead, and Bagent will finish with zero turnovers. It may take some last-second heroics, but I think the Bears will win.