3 keys to a Chicago Bears victory over the Lions in Week 11

This hurts me to write, but on Sunday, when the Chicago Bears face off against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field, it will have been 724 days since the Bears last defeated a division rival.

Incidentally, that last division win was against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. In that game, quarterback Andy Dalton shepherded the Bears to a 16-14 Thanksgiving Day win. This time, barring any unforeseen setbacks, quarterback Justin Fields will return to the starting lineup after missing the last four games with a thumb injury.

A lot of pressure will be riding on Fields’ shoulders in this game. For the first time in many years, the Lions are a legitimate force on the field, and they’re riding high after a dramatic 41-38 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers last week. At 7-2, they are clearly in the driver’s seat for the NFC North and are probably circling this game against Chicago as a tune-up on the way to tougher matchups.

But this is an “any given Sunday” league, and the Bears would enjoy raining on Detroit’s parade while simultaneously breaking an 11-game losing streak against division rivals and starting a winning streak of their own, something they haven’t done yet under head coach Matt Eberflus.

The difference between winning and losing in the NFL usually comes down to just a few key players or strategies, and here’s what the Bears need most to get a win.

It begins and ends with Justin Fields

It all starts with the quarterback. When Justin Fields is on his A-game, he looks like the kind of quarterback even Patrick Mahomes would struggle to outduel. Sadly, such performances have been few and far between. He had a tremendous two-game streak in weeks 4 and 5, but before he was injured in Week 6, he had put up just 58 yards and zero touchdowns through three quarters.

If the latter Fields shows up, you can write this game off as an ugly loss from the beginning.

Fields has to be the guy we saw throw for 600 yards and eight touchdowns in that two-game stretch if the Bears want to beat the Lions.

Detroit has a dominant pass rush, led by stud second-year player Aiden Hutchinson, but there are still some clear vulnerabilities that the Baltimore Ravens exposed three weeks ago. Lamar Jackson was efficient with the football, taking zero sacks while the run game gashed Detroit and opened up passing opportunities.

The blueprint is there, and if Fields can play similar football, he should see similar success.

A healthy offensive line must hold its ground

For the first time in the Matt Eberflus era, the intended starting five of the offensive line are all on track to start this Sunday. With the likely return of Nate Davis, he will slot back in at right guard, pushing Teven Jenkins to Left Guard, Lucas Patrick will slot in at Center.

This is big for the team. After dozens of starting OL configurations, they will finally have their five best players on the field, just in time for a tough division matchup and the return of Justin Fields.

Love or hate him, you can’t deny that one of Fields’ flaws is holding the ball too long. That will put some stress on this offensive line against what is a very good pass rush. But they’ve proven to be up to the task before, and if they can give Fields all the time he needs in a clean pocket, we know that this offense can hum like the best of them.

Stop the David Montgomery revenge game

Former Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery has had this game circled since the offseason, he said so himself during training camp. We don’t know if there’s any bad blood between Montgomery and the Bears, but we know that NFL players love putting on a show against their former teams.

The defense must deny him that satisfaction. Chicago fans know that when Montgomery gets going, he can be really tough to bring down. He’s also a great pass catcher, too. If the defense gives up four or more yards per carry, it will be a long day for that unit.

Defensive tackle Andrew Billings and linebackers Jack Sanborn and TJ Edwards will be instrumental in slowing Montgomery down. They’ve done a fantastic, even historic job, through ten weeks, taking what was a league-worst run-stopping unit in 2022 to second-best in the league in 2023. Now, they face their biggest test against a Lions team that’s racking up 139 rushing yards per game.

An unstoppable force is about to meet an immovable object. Which side will break? That could determine who wins this one.

Final Prediction: Bears lose 24-20

I don’t think the Bears have the firepower to keep up with the Detroit Lions. Many Bears fans are excited for the return of Justin Fields, but it’s hard to shake the memory of his performance against the Vikings, which was the last time we saw him: 58 yards on 6-of-10 passing for an interception and no touchdowns while taking four sacks.

Coming off an injury that’s kept him out for four games, it’s impossible to trust him right now. And as Fields goes, so go the Bears.

I hope I’m wrong. Nothing would please me more than to look like a complete fool for having doubted Fields. But if and until that happens, I can’t have any faith.

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