NFL Best Bets, Week 11: Chiefs among favorite picks in Super Bowl rematch

Ok, so bear with me here (no pun intended). We are fighting a bit of a slump, the last thing we should do is point fingers. It’s maddening that the Chicago Bears gave up a special teams touchdown and kicked three field goals against the Carolina Panthers, who couldn’t move the ball, causing Chicago to barely miss covering, resulting in an “L” for my Week 10 picks.

What’s even crazier is that the Baltimore Ravens blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead and ended up losing to a team they beat by 25 points earlier in the year.

I would argue that the Buffalo Bills’ loss to the Denver Broncos was unforgivable, but they seem to have mailed it in (I was very tempted to take the Jets +6.5) this week.

So, yeah, it was a bad week for my picks column.

Luckily, we have a great team culture (right Flus?) and are back in the saddle for Week 11. Here are my three best bets for Week 11.

Reminder: Lines taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.

RAMS +1 vs Seahawks

I went against the grain for one of my betting rules a few weeks ago. I laid the points against a home divisional underdog. I usually like home divisional dogs because these division games are crucial, and both teams know each other so well that it is generally close. The exception is if one team has far superior talent, so we picked the Chiefs to cover against the Broncos (whoops).

The Rams are not only a home-division dog this week but also coming off a bye and they’re as healthy as ever (not a single player missed practice this week). Los Angeles ranks 10th in third-down conversion and will face a Seahawks team that ranks 30th in third-down defense, you do the math.

The cherry on top is that Rams coach Sean McVay has covered the last six matchups vs Pete Carroll, including four outright wins.

STEELERS +1 @ Browns

This is the second week in a row, I am picking against the Brownies.

Deshaun Watson is out for the year, and rather than turning to veteran PJ Walker, the Browns are handing the keys to the offense to rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson. This will be only his second start, and he faces a Mike Tomlin defense that gives major fits to rookie QBs.

In his first start, Thomas-Robinson threw three interceptions and was sacked four times in a 28-3 loss to the Ravens. Couple this with the Browns also trotting a backup center out there, and I can see a long day ahead for the rookie. Steelers win an ugly one.

CHIEFS -2.5 vs Eagles

It’s a Super Bowl rematch that will live up to the hype. The Kelce Bowl features two outstanding teams in that elite status. The Philadelphia Eagles usually have an advantage in the trenches, but that doesn’t carry over to this game. The Kansas City Chiefs offense is first in sack rate, and their defense is second. This will neutralize the Eagles’ clear advantage against the non-elite teams, and they may need to find another gear to rely on.

While both teams are coming off a bye, the Chiefs went into theirs losing a heavily favored divisional game. Those guys are amped up and itching to get that bad taste out of their mouths.

Take Kansas City in this one.