Here are the updated odds of the Bears landing the No.1 pick in 2024 NFL Draft

Chicago Bears fans hoped they’d be in this position when GM Ryan Poles traded the first pick in the 2023 NFL draft to the Carolina Panthers for DJ Moore and Carolina’s 2024 first-rounder (among other picks).

Bears fans hoped that that pick, the Panthers’ 2024 first, would be in the mix to be an early first-round selection.

After 12 weeks of the 2023 season, Carolina’s first-round pick is … on the clock. The Panthers are the worst team in the NFL, and on Monday, they may have gotten worse. Carolina cleaned house, firing head coach Frank Reich, quarterbacks coach Josh McCown, and running backs coach Duce Staley.

Yikes.

Or maybe it’s more of a HOORAY!

The Panthers’ 1-10 record, combined with the dumpster fire going on inside the organization, has the Bears’ odds of landing the first overall pick at 67%, according to ESPN.

ESPN Analytics’ latest number crunch gives the Bears a 67% chance of landing the No. 1 pick in the draft via Carolina and a 2% chance of getting it with their slot.

— Jason Lieser (@JasonLieser) November 27, 2023

The two most significant threats to the Bears’ (or Panthers) securing that top pick are the Arizona Cardinals (2-10) and New England Patriots (2-9).

Here’s how the schedule breaks down for both of those clubs.

Cardinals:

Week 13: Steelers (If Murray gets hot, maybe a W)
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: 49ers (that’s a loss)
Week 16: Bears (uh, yeah, talk about competing interests)
Week 17: Eagles (yep, another loss)
Week 18: Seahawks (division game? Ya never know)

It feels pretty safe to predict the Cardinals maybe have one win left in them. And it’d be the Bears … it has to be the Bears.

Patriots:

Week 13: Chargers (that’s a loss … I think)
Week 14: Steelers (another “L”)
Week 15: Chiefs (gross)
Week 16: Broncos (Denver is hot, but … maybe)
Week 17: Bills (take the L)
Week 18: Jets (this could be the one the Bears need)

I don’t see any wins for the Patriots down the stretch. The Jets will be the only hope to give the Panthers some breathing room.

Panthers:

Week 13: Buccaneers (I don’t trust Baker Mayfield to seal the deal)
Week 14: Saints (This one’s a loss)
Week 15: Falcons (Can we trust Desmond Ridder?)
Week 16: Packers (We’ll all wear Green and Gold for this one)
Week 17: Jaguars (easy win for Lawrence)
Week 18: Buccaneers (Baker Mayfield AGAIN?!)

The Panthers have the most winnable games of the three teams fighting for the top pick. They’re also the worst all-around team, so maybe that won’t matter much.

Get your TUMS ready. It’s going to be a photo finish for the top pick.