4 Bears Thoughts … at the Bye: Has Matt Eberflus saved his job?

We’ve finally arrived at the Chicago Bears’ bye week. And there’s no better time than a late-season bye to step back and think about some of the biggest questions facing this team.

Are the Bears turning the corner and becoming a playoff-caliber squad? Have GM Ryan Poles and coach Matt Eberflus done enough to impress team president Kevin Warren and keep their jobs for another year? And what about the whole quarterback conversation? Are you team Justin Fields or team 2024 NFL Draft? Does it even matter?

Let’s dive in with our four Bears Thoughts.

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Are the Chicago Bears in the playoff hunt?

The Bears’ 2023 season has been difficult to process. At times, it feels like this team is lucky to have four wins. At other times, it feels like the Bears should be no worse than 6-6. Perhaps even 7-5.

So, what gives? Are the Bears actually still alive as the final five games of the 2023 season approach?

The not-so-simple answer is … sort of.

Chicago’s defense is playing at a playoff level. They’re No. 1 in the NFL against the run and suddenly rank third in interceptions (13). Sure, the points allowed aren’t great (24.7), but not all stats are created equally. Not all of those points have been scored against the defense, as coach Matt Eberflus pointed out this week.

The Bears still need to get better at rushing the passer (they remain last in the NFL with 17 sacks), and as that number continues ticking upward, their bottom-third pass defense, surrendering 239.5 yards per game, will improve, too.

The Bears’ schedule suggests they could also have a greater than 0% chance of making a playoff run. Their toughest matchup comes in Week 14 against the Detroit Lions. Perhaps Chicago can seal the deal this time around.

Weeks 15 through 18 are winnable. The Bears have the QB-less Cleveland Browns, the lowly Arizona Cardinals, the confusing Atlanta Falcons, and the suddenly challenging Green Bay Packers.

A world exists in which the Bears can end the year 4-1 and with an 8-9 record. Keep the faith.

Montez Sweat may be saving Ryan Poles’ job

No, I don’t think Ryan Poles is in jeopardy of losing his job as the Bears’ general manager. But, let’s face it: it’s hard not to contemplate change after back-to-back seasons in which Chicago is among the worst teams in the NFL.

Positive change takes time and patience, though, and I think team president Kevin Warren will respect the process Poles has in place. He’s drafted well, and the trade for Montez Sweat, which was initially met with criticism by hacks like Mike Lombardi, has turned out to be one of the best trades in recent team history.

Sweat has transformed the Chicago Bears’ defensive line. His presence has had a positive trickle-down effect on young players like Gervon Dexter, and the uptick in turnovers the defense has forced since his arrival is no coincidence.

Sweat’s appeared in four games for the Bears and has 2.5 sacks and six QB hits. He now has nine sacks this season, and at 27 years old, he’ll be a cornerstone defender in Chicago for a very long time.

Imagine if Poles took the advice of guys like Lombardi and waited until free agency to pursue Sweat? The cost to sign him would’ve been out of control, not to mention the long line of teams that would’ve been jockeying for his services.

Kudos to Poles for this stroke of brilliance.

Speaking of jobs being saved … The return of the Flus?

Matt Eberflus has had a rough go at it this season. A lot of it is his fault, too. The defensive coordinator he handpicked, Alan Williams, was canned early in the year for reasons we’re still left to speculate about. His running backs coach soon followed Williams to the unemployment line. His offensive coordinator is allergic to plays that don’t begin with an “S” and end in “Creen.”

When the coaching staff is that much of a disaster, the buck stops with the guy at the top. That’s Eberflus.

But you have to give the Flus credit. He’s taken control of the Bears’ defense and has flipped the unit into one of the most productive in the league in recent weeks. Chicago’s forced eight turnovers in their last two games. He earned his first NFC North win with a victory over the Vikings in Week 12, and he should’ve had back-to-back divisional wins if Chicago could’ve just finished in Week 11 against the Lions.

We know at least this much about Eberflus: he’s a hell of a defensive coach. And sometimes, guys like him need to grow into the head coaching gig. We’re slowly seeing him develop in that role, but he needs to prove to the fan base that he won’t tolerate an offense that can’t produce points, especially when his defense keeps putting the Bears in position to light up the scoreboard.

It’s OK not to know what you want the Bears to do at QB

The Chicago Bears fanbase is divided right now. You’ll see what I mean if you spend a few minutes on Twitter. It’s fractured, and it’s because there’s a large contingent that wants Justin Fields to remain the team’s quarterback in 2024, while an equally large group of Bears fans want Ryan Poles to move on and select either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Here’s the thing: You don’t need to pick a side. It’s OK to ride the fence and let this quarterback thing play out. At the end of the day, all we want is for the Bears to win games, and they’ll need a quarterback to have any chance at doing that.

I believe Justin Fields can be that guy. I’d also have no problem if the Bears think they gave him enough time to prove himself and decide to move on with Williams or Maye. This is a rare moment when you can have your cake and eat it, too. Don’t spoil it.

The good news is no matter what decision Poles and the Bears make, an exciting quarterback will be behind center in 2024. There are only three options here … Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, and Drake Maye … and all three are fine. All three have upside, and all three can be a franchise quarterback in the NFL.

There’s strategy involved in this decision, of course. If the Bears keep Fields, they’ll free up their top 2024 NFL draft pick for Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s a really good thing.

If Fields is the guy, Poles could trade their first first-rounder to a team desperate to jump up for a quarterback. He can continue stacking drafts with multiple first-round picks. Again, that’s a really good thing.

If Fields isn’t the guy, then Poles could trade him for what I believe would be, at worst, a second-round pick. The Bears would likely select Caleb Williams with the first pick and be enriched with a second-rounder in their arsenal. Again, this is a really good thing!

See the point? The outcome will be good for the Bears. Maybe it won’t be good for your Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, or Drake Maye scouting report, but who cares? Seriously, who cares? Maybe you were wrong about Fields, or maybe you’ll be right. Good for you. At the end of the day, we all want THE BEARS TO BE RIGHT.

Sit back, relax, and let the 2023 season play out. The Justin Fields decision won’t be made until the Chicago Bears know where they pick in the first round. If the Carolina Panthers go on a heater and end the year with the third pick, this is a moot point. The Bears are sticking with QB1. If the Panthers nosedive and lock in the first selection? All bets are off.

Until then, Fields is the guy. And he’ll have five games to cement that status. Enjoy them.

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