Bears vs. Falcons: 3 Keys to a Bears win in Week 17

On Sunday, the Chicago Bears (6-9) will play their final home game of the 2023 season against the Atlanta Falcons (7-8), who come to Soldier Field in a race for the NFC South crown. The Bears’ playoff hopes are still alive, too, making this late-season game a surprisingly interesting one.

Unfortunately for Chicago, they’ll be without Darnell Mooney, while Cole Kmet remains questionable. The offense has to find a way to make up for the lost firepower.

The Chicago Bears still have a lot going for them, however, and there’s a clear path to victory that they can follow against an inconsistent Falcons team.

Run the ball

Atlanta’s passing defense has been surprisingly stout, giving up the seventh-fewest passing yards per game this season. They should present Justin Fields with plenty of problems.

The key for Chicago will be to consistently run the ball throughout all four quarters. The run game has been struggling lately, a breakout game could be coming.

If the Bears can run for four or five yards consistently on first down, they’ll help Justin Fields deal with Atlanta’s secondary when it matters most.

Stop Bijan Robinson

The Falcons star rookie running back has been having a great first season in the NFL. He’s already put up over 1,200 yards from scrimmage, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, and has posted seven touchdowns.

Bijan Robinson making multiple Colts defenders miss on this explosive run! pic.twitter.com/TVdp0KEUxa

— Hook’em Headlines (@HookemHeadlines) December 24, 2023

He’s a threat in both the passing and running game and will be one of the better, most dynamic backs that Chicago has faced so far. Stopping him will be paramount to a Bears’ victory.

Don’t coach scared

The Chicago Bears have tied a dubious NFL record this season, losing three games in which they held fourth-quarter leads of 10 points or more. That falls squarely on the shoulders of the coaching staff, and the main problem has been scared playcalling.

When the Bears enter the last quarter with a lead, typically, you see the offense become super conservative and the defense plays prevent. And as has happened all too often, this lets their opponent get back into the game and even snatch away a win.

The Bears should be able to build up a lead on the Atlanta Falcons by the time they reach the fourth quarter, and if they start coaching scared, then they’ll give Robinson and his teammates every chance to get right back into it.

Final prediction: Chicago Bears win 27-17

Despite all this team’s deficiencies and shortcomings, I believe they’re good enough to beat Atlanta. It’s close, but I trust Justin Fields more than Desmond Ridder.

This should be a surprisingly exciting game with playoff implications. I still don’t think the Bears can count on a postseason berth, but a win on Sunday would only improve their odds.