How Realistic is this Dream Bears Draft Scenario?

Now that the Chicago Bears quarterback drama is behind us, we can focus on the 2024 NFL Draft and the likely scenarios that will present themselves to general manager Ryan Poles in the first round.

At this point, the first overall pick seems like a foregone conclusion. The Bears will pick Caleb Williams. It’s that simple.

Sure, you’ll hear talking heads suggest LSU’s Jayden Daniels or UNC’s Drake Maye are worth Poles’ attention, and while that may be true, the only quarterback in the 2024 draft with immense superstar upside is Williams. He’s a Bear.

The Chicago Bears’ next first-round pick, the No. 9 overall, is when the real fun begins.

With only four draft picks currently in his arsenal, a popular belief is that Poles will trade back in an effort to collect more draft currency. I think that’s a fair theory, especially considering the talent that will be available several picks after No. 9 is very similar to the players who should be on the board when Chicago is on the clock.

That is, of course, assuming all three alpha wide receivers have been selected.

Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU’s Malik Nabers, and Washington’s Rome Odunze are all worthy of being drafted in the top seven selections. If any of them slide to No. 9? Trading back for more picks becomes bad business.

The Chicago Bears land Nabers with the ninth pick in Pro Football Focus’ latest 2024 NFL Mock Draft, and the logic behind Nabers falling to No. 9 is sound.

Here’s how the first eight picks go in PFF’s mock:

1. Caleb Williams (Bears)

2. Drake Maye (Commanders)

3. Jayden Daniels (Patriots)

4. J.J. McCarthy (via trade, Vikings)

5. Marvin Harrison Jr. (Chargers)

6. Rome Odunze (Giants)

7. Joe Alt (Titans)

8. Dallas Turner (Falcons

Then, at No. 9, the Chicago Bears snag Nabers.

Check out that top eight. It all makes sense, doesn’t it? The key to this dream Bears scenario actually happening is a fourth quarterback being selected in the top eight picks. In this mock draft, it’s McCarthy at No. 4. Maybe on draft day, the Giants will take McCarthy at six. Regardless, four quarterbacks must get picked before the Chicago Bears are on the clock to turn this into a reality.

The Titans are absolutely in play to take an offensive tackle over a wide receiver, especially after investing $92 million in Calvin Ridley Jr. The Falcons? They’re in a similar situation. They invested a first-round pick in Drake London two years ago and a sizable free-agent contract in Darnell Mooney this offseason. Add Kirk Cousins and his bank-busting deal, and it’s fair to assume they’ll focus on defense in the first round.

It comes down to basic math. If two teams are eliminated from the wide receiver derby, and four quarterbacks are selected in the top eight, the Chicago Bears are guaranteed a return like this at No. 9.

Trading back and accumulating more draft picks might be a good idea right now, but if Nabers or Odunze fall to No. 9, Ryan Poles will have no choice but to figure out another way to add more selections to his 2024 ledger.