Setting rookie year expectations for Caleb Williams

After years of searching for a true franchise quarterback, the Chicago Bears hope they’ve finally found their man in Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft.

But what should Bears fans expect from Williams in his rookie season?

There’s no denying Williams’ rare skill set, with the kind of arm talent and playmaking instincts that have drawn understandable comparisons to Patrick Mahomes. The Heisman Trophy winner in 2022, Williams is a threat to make a highlight-reel play on every snap, which he did quite often for the Trojans after transferring from Oklahoma.

It’s always helpful to temper expectations for any incoming NFL rookie, regardless of their talent level, but it’s hard not to be bullish on Williams’ potential even right out of the gate.

For starters, he’ll have a better supporting cast than Justin Fields ever had in his three seasons under center for the Bears, thanks to recent additions that bolstered the offensive line, and more elite pass-catching weapons like veteran Keenan Allen and fellow first-round rookie Rome Odunze. Throw in a deep offensive backfield that now features D’Andre Swift, and you’ve got plenty of help for Williams to start his NFL career.

As far as individual success, it’s not hard to imagine Williams topping 4,000 yards passing and 30 touchdown passes in his rookie campaign, in part because he’ll be the unquestioned starter right away, and the Bears are likely to be trailing in plenty of games this season that will force the game script to favor four quarters of throwing the ball quite a bit. He’s also got enough athleticism to be a threat with this legs whenever necessary, so don’t count out some additional yards and scores on the ground.

Team success for the Bears with Williams at the helm may take some time, though, largely due to a loaded NFC North that features a legit Super Bowl contender in the Detroit Lions, a young and ascending Green Bay Packers team, and a talented Minnesota Vikings club that just needs to figure out the quarterback situation to be competitive.

Making the playoffs in Year 1 might be a stretch for Williams and the Bears, but he should put up solid numbers right away, and postseason contention won’t be far off in the future.