What are Matt Eberflus’ chances to win Coach of the Year in 2024?

At several points in 2023, it seemed like Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus’s firing was inevitable. In the early months of the offseason, after Eberflus kept his job, it was (and still is) a popular talking point to say that he’s on the hot seat in 2024. NFL analysts and fans may believe this, but Vegas insders aren’t so sure.

According to the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, Matt Eberflus is tied with the new head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers, Jim Harbaugh, for the best odds to be the 2024 NFL Coach of the Year at +900. New York Jets coach Robert Saleh and Demeco Ryans of the Houston Texans are next, both at +1100, and Matt LaFleur of the Green Bay Packers rounds out the Top 5 at +1200.

This is fairly shocking even to me. I’ve been adamant that Matt Eberflus’ job is as safe as can be in 2024 unless the Bears inexplicably regress to another 3-win season or some similar catastrophe befalls them. But the odds-on favorite to be Coach of the Year? Is that even remotely realistic?

It all depends on Caleb Williams

I wouldn’t put any money on it personally, but I see the logic here. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has been the heavy favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year all offseason. He stands at just +135 as of June 17th, far ahead of the runner-up, Jayden Daniels, at +550 (if you’re curious, Rome Odunze is 11th at +4000). He even falls in the Top 20 for odds to win MVP.

Let’s say Williams does win Offensive Rookie of the Year with numbers similar to CJ Stroud’s tally last year when he won the award. When you consider the overall strength of Chicago’s roster and the seemingly weak schedule they will play, a quarterback who puts up over 4,000 yards and slightly better than a 4:1 touchdown/interception ratio, you have to assume the Bears will win at least ten games, which ought to be more than enough to secure a playoff spot and possibly capture their first division crown since 2018 (which, incidentally, was the last time a Chicago Bears head coach was Coach of the Year).

That’s the kind of worst-to-first turnaround that the voters on NFL awards love to see.

Coach of the Year is notoriously hard to predict

For some awards in the NFL, the criteria is fairly straightforward. Not so for Coach of the Year. Will it go to the coach with the best record? How about the coach with the best improvement over last year? Or will a coach who has been a leading candidate for years finally get what some consider his due?

This is a hard award to predict, but there’s a logical path to the once embattled Matt Eberflus adding some hardware to his office in Halas Hall this year. If Caleb Williams can put together a solid rookie campaign and wins Offensive Rookie of the Year, and if the team just slightly outperforms their 8.5 predicted win total and punches their playoff ticket (I believe 11 wins is in the cards), then I think the newly-bearded Matt Eberflus will be the media darling when it comes time to vote on awards.

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