What is Caleb Williams’ ceiling this season?

I’ll be the first to admit that I have a hard time managing expectations for rookies who enter the league after dominating in college, but it’s a necessary exercise. The transition from college to the NFL is tough, and every player develops at their own pace.

What kind of development can we expect from each of Chicago’s rookies in 2024?

Let’s start with their first pick, Caleb Williams, and predict a floor, middle ground, and ceiling for his debut season, along with comparisons to other NFL players.

Floor

If you like, you can knock on wood before reading this, but I don’t see how Williams has a disastrous rookie campaign like Bryce Young did in 2023. Not only is Williams a better prospect than Young, but he’s been drafted into a far superior situation. He has arguably the best collection of pass catchers for any quarterback this year, not just rookies. While the offensive line won’t be great, it should be solid after two years of gradual improvements. And, perhaps most importantly, he will be in the hands of a capable offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron.

With that said, I think the floor for Williams should be fairly high for a rookie quarterback. Assuming he plays all 17 games, I don’t think he should end the season below 3,350 yards, 21 passing touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. For those curious, those are the stats Justin Fields would have had last season had he played every game, and “2023 Justin Fields” is my player comp for Williams in a worst-case scenario for his rookie year.

Mid

As aforementioned, I expect big things from Williams, given his innate talent, reportedly excellent work ethic, and the quality of players around him. The above scenario would be fine for most rookies, but I’d be disappointed if that’s how it goes for Williams.

Assuming he meets expectations without exceeding them, his final stat line should be in the neighborhood of 3,740 yards, 26 passing touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. This would immediately be the third-best season for a Chicago Bears quarterback in franchise history, just behind Jay Cutler in 2014 and Erik Kramer in 1995. In this case, I think he’d be compared to Kyler Murray.

Ceiling

Before I get into my predicted ceiling for Williams, I want to stress that this is not my prediction for how the season will actually go. In this scenario, Williams almost completely skips the rookie learning curve, and the rest of the roster matches expectations. In my mind, and I’m joined in this opinion by former general manager Rick Spielman, Williams is tied with Andrew Luck as the best quarterback prospect of the last 30 years. His college tape is littered with mind-blowing throws and raw athletic ability.

My best-case scenario for Williams is to break multiple rookie quarterback records and shatter every franchise record. He would end the season with 4,590 yards, 33 passing touchdowns, and nine interceptions. If this is Williams’ stat line at the end of the season, not only would he be the clear Offensive Rookie of the Year, but I think he’d also be a strong MVP candidate.

My player comp for Williams throughout the offseason has been Aaron Rodgers, and I only meant stylistically. But in this case, I think you would also have to consider a direct comparison in talent and ability.

What is your best-case-scenario for Caleb Williams this year? Sign up for a free user account and add your prediction in the comments.

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