NFL Best Bets: Week 4

Week 3 is in the books and it has been one of the more unpredictable ones to date. NFL underdogs of 5.5+ points are now 14-2 ATS this season with ten outright wins (including a ridiculous 5-0) in Week 3. Normally, I like taking 6.5 point favorites, but I don’t think the value is there this season. This leads us to our Week 4 Best Bets, lets dive in.

PATRIOTS +10.5 @ 49ers

This feels like too many points for a team that was competitive in its first two games and then was totally outclassed in its third. Most teams respond when they get publically humiliated, and I expect a much better effort from the Patriots in Week 4. They are coming off extra rest and facing a 49er team that looks like a mash unit. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle remain banged up, and even Brock Purdy is dealing with a sore back. I think the Patriots will respond with a spirited effort, and while they might not win, they will cover the 10.5.

STEELERS -1.5 @ Colts

Mike Tomlin is 25-6 against rookie quarterbacks, and as we saw with Bo Nix earlier, he hasn’t lost a step in that department. Anthony Richardson is basically a rookie, and you could argue he has worse decision-making than Bo Nix. The Steelers shut down Bijan Robinson and JK Dobbins, so I expect they can find a way to slow down Jonathon Taylor, forcing Richardson into some third and longs. Expect multiple turnovers for the Pittsburgh defense, which will give Justin Fields and the offense a few extra possessions. On the offensive side of the ball, I think Arthur Smith will find running lanes for Fields and Najee Harris, and they will be able to exploit that porous Colts run defense. Steelers control the clock and the game.

TITANS +1 @ Dolphins

The Titans have to win a game at some point, right? Tennessee was a dark horse playoff darling in some NFL circles, but major regressions from quarterback Will Levis have completely derailed those predictions. That being said, this seems like a good spot for the Titans to get their first win of the season. They will be playing a Miami team that could be on its third-string quarterback and also be missing their all-pro left tackle (Terron Armstead), who is in concussion protocol. I know betting on Will Levis to play clean football is like betting on my kids to brush their teeth before bed, but I feel confident that he can have a good game and get the Titans in the win column.