The Bears’ chances to make the 2024 NFL playoffs are worse than you think

It feels like a really, really, long time ago that the Chicago Bears looked like a 2024 playoff team. They won four of their first six games behind one of the NFL’s top defenses with a promising cast of skill players on offense.

Then came the four-game losing streak, which included losses by Hail Mary and an end-of-game blocked field goal against the nemesis Green Bay Packers.

Simply put, the last month of Bears football has been excruciating. Chicago could very easily be 6-4 (or better!) entering this Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Vikings, and regardless of the outcome, it should’ve been setting the stage for an exciting contest against the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving.

Instead, any hope that the Bears will make a late-season push for the playoffs is virtually gone. And that’s not hyperbole.

READ: Bears freefall down NFL Power Rankings continues in Week 12

According to the New York Times NFL Playoff Simulator, the Chicago Bears currently have a 1% chance of making the post-season. And it gets worse. Even if they win their next four games in a row, which is a murderer’s row of the Vikings (twice), Lions, and San Francisco 49ers, their chances for a trip to the dance increase to only 21%.

NYT Playoff Simulator has the Bears at less than 1% chance of making the playoffs.

Without factoring in any results from other NFL games, if the Bears won their next FOUR in a row (Min, at Det, at SF, at Min) to get to 8-6, that figure would rise only to 21%.

— Jason Lieser (@JasonLieser) November 22, 2024

It doesn’t help that the Bears have the NFL’s most difficult remaining schedule, either.

Bears have by far the NFL’s hardest remaining schedule with a .729 opponent winning percentage, which is the equivalent of a 12-5 team:

vs MIN (8-2)
at DET (9-1)
at SF (5-5)
at MIN (8-2)
vs DET (9-1)
vs SEA (5-5)
at GB (7-3)

Total: 51-19 (.729)

— Jason Lieser (@JasonLieser) November 22, 2024

Perhaps it’s time to pour one out for the Bears’ 2024 season. The diehards will keep the light on for a playoff berth, but it’d probably make more sense to start dusting off your NFL draft notebooks.