3 Keys to a Bears victory over the Vikings in Week 12

Any idea that the Chicago Bears could push for the playoffs in 2024 is virtually gone. After a four-game losing streak and a changing of offensive coordinators, it seems that all that’s left for the team and the fans is pride and a show of progress, specifically in the development of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. It’s his shoulders, after all, that carry a city’s hopes and dreams of a Super Bowl title. He must show that he’s the long-awaited franchise quarterback, and the Bears must reclaim some pride by winning some tough games.

That starts Sunday at home against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings started the season hot, roaring out to a 5-0 start, but have since cooled down. They’re still a dangerous team but no longer the world-beaters they once were. Quarterback Sam Darnold is falling back into bad habits and their offense is averaging less than 20 points per game in their last four contests.

The Bears need a win here, like a fish needs water. Here’s how they can make that happen.

1. Counter Minnesota’s relentless blitz.

Minnesota’s defensive coordinator, Brian Flores, loves to blitz. He sends extra pass rushers at a significantly higher rate than anyone else in the league. Typically, this is the best way to confound young quarterbacks like Williams, but lost amidst Chicago’s disastrous losing streak is that Williams has gotten really good against the blitz. Scary good, actually.

The Packers blitzed Caleb Williams 12 times. On those blitzes…

Caleb:
• 94.5 PFF Grade
• 92.0 Pass Grade
• 8/10
• 87 yards, 1 BTT
• 90.0% adjusted accuracy

— I (@ilannfl) November 18, 2024

Bears fans don’t need to worry about Williams beating the blitz. However, offensive coordinator Thomas Brown needs to make sure he’s helping him. That means calling quick passing plays and running the ball. This also puts pressure on D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson. If they can run the ball well and get Williams some quick, easy passes, Flores’ blitz-happy defense will crumble.

2. Get after Sam Darnold.

Before their Week 7 bye, the Bears averaged a respectable three sacks per game. In four games since then, they’ve registered just seven sacks, and one of those was Jordan Love running out of bounds a few inches behind the line of scrimmage. That’s not sustainable for a team looking to break out of a losing streak, especially when Justin Jefferson is on the other side.

Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Aaron Jones are big plays just waiting to happen in the passing game, and if Darnold is allowed to sit comfortably in the pocket, they’ll make the Bears pay. Montez Sweat, in particular, needs to start getting to the quarterback. He has not been nearly as impactful as he was in 2023, and that needs to change on Sunday. The Bears did not give him a franchise-record contract just to get close.

3. Jaylon Johnson vs. Justin Jefferson

The Vikings may have the best receiver in the league in Justin Jefferson, but the Bears are not unarmed in this battle. They have the league’s best coverage cornerback, Jaylon Johnson. Because of injuries, these two have not faced each other since the 2022 season, and given the accolades that both players have received since then, you can bet that they’re itching to show each other up.

Jefferson is too good of a receiver to expect to shut out entirely. He’ll get his. But Johnson is the best corner in the league, and he needs to prove it again on Sunday by limiting the damage Jefferson does.

Final Prediction: Vikings win 24-21

At this point, I can’t pick the Bears to win until they actually earn a victory. In the last month, they’ve lost games in almost every manner imaginable: by playing poorly, by playing undisciplined, by giving up a Hail Mary, and by allowing a blocked field goal. What’s next, losing on a special teams touchdown? However it happens, I fully expect the Bears to find another way to lose this one.